On March 10, 2022, a long-lasting solar flare occurred in the massive sunspot area AR2960. It resulted in a coronal mass ejection headed at Earth (CME).
On March 13, charged particles from the sun are expected to arrive at 11:35 UTC (plus or minus 7 hours). This suggests that auroral activity in the Western Hemisphere might rise tonight (March 12-13).
The estimate is based on NASA’s ENLIL solar wind / CME model, which is utilized by scientists. The effect is expected to be between Kp=5 and 8, or a light (G1) to severe geomagnetic storm (G4).
Another CME, which departed the sun on Monday, March 7, 2022, sideswiped Earth on March 10. At high latitudes, it caused an auroral spectacle.